Right Phantom... Dirty bombs.
But I see that nobody's interested on proposing a good storyline for a confilct related with Russia. Even myself.
Regarding to the current situation of the former USSR Reps, I can see them involving into a serious international conflict. Of course, they still have their pride and they'll still try to show themselves to the international community, if you know what i mean. Therefore, a large scale conflict might not be the most apropriated, though it's possible.
In my opinion, a good story line - regarding to a conflict with Russia - would involve a terrorist liberation army / rebel liberation army (they're much different) versus russian government (ministry of interior, p.g.). A few terrorist acts against russian communes could be implemented. We could also add a new personage: the man-bomb (I don't know if anybody as already made this one), which would blow up a few houses with russian civilians inside... and maybe a bus to. Hey, wait... This seems to make an interesting campaign, full of 'movies'.
Of course, we shall not forget the good guy/guys and the headman of the rebels/terrorists. But not ex-Spetz Natz, please... I'm tired of that story!
P.S. - While I was writting this post, it constantly remembered me the russian conflict in Chechenya. So, if you think it's not original enough, just forget it, I'm not in the mood of reading offensive replies. It's just a proposal.